The Red and the Blue

Merriam-Webster defines a “specter” as “something that haunts or perturbs the mind.” And over the next two years, the reelection of Arlen Specter, the senior senator from Pennsylvania, will haunt the corridors of Capitol Hill. That’s because Specter, running for his sixth term in 2010, qualifies as a prime target for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the political organizing arm of the Democratic Party responsible for getting Democrats elected to the U.S. Senate.

During the Obama-Clinton April 2008 primary and the Obama-McCain general election, the Democratic share of the Pennsylvania electorate sky-rocketed. According to the Pennsylvania Department of State, Democrats increased their numerical advantage over Republicans in the state from 580,208 in 2004 to 1,237,300 in 2008. Likewise, the Democratic share of total registered voters in the state changed from 48 percent to 51 percent, respectively. For this reason alone, Specter is due for a tough campaign.

But before Democrats rejoice at the possibility of another moderate Republican biting the dust, it’s important to factor in the nuanced challenges Specter will face, and how he could avoid losing. On the blog FiveThirtyEight.com, Nate Silver has factored Pennsylvania as the number one pick-up opportunity in 2010. Silver’s argument is based on the likelihood of a number of factors, among them Specter switching parties, losing the Republican nomination to a conservative, refusing to run again (he’ll be 80 years old on election day), and just, plain losing to a Democrat. Read more…

Uncategorized Arlen Specter, EFCA, Pennsylvania, Republican, Senate

As anyone who has traveled to Washington, D.C., and can read a license plate can tell you, the District of Columbia is a bastion of taxation without representation.

Constitutionally deprived of a voting representative in the House of Representatives (not to mention the Senate), D.C. voting rights has been an on-going shadow issue for decades among residents. The issue hinges on constitutional and legal constraints, balance in Congress and the lack of political will. Ironically, the city that hosts the country’s politicians has had a very hard time getting leaders to act on the issue. But in recent weeks, an unlikely ally has come to aid the District in its fight: Utah.

How, you might ask, does Utah fit into the politics of voting rights in Washington? According to the Constitution, in Article 1, Section 8, Clause 17, Congress has the right to regulate the District directly. As such, D.C. voting rights are subject to national political concerns, and competing constituency expectations. For Republicans, it would be inconceivable to give a seat in Congress to a heavily Democratic district with no strings attached (although that would obviously be the just thing to do). For Republicans to agree to a Democratic representative from the District, they would need a new Republican district to strike a balance. And where could a reliable Republican district be placed? Utah! Read more…

Uncategorized D.C., Senate, Utah